FINAL BRACKET

Midwest				East
1	Kentucky			1	Syracuse
16	Western Kentucky/Lamar			16	Vermont
Louisville				Pittsburgh
8	Gonzaga			8	Iowa St
9	Saint Louis			9	Xavier
4	Georgetown			4	Indiana
13	Ohio			13	Long Beach St
Nashville				Louisville
5	Murray St			5	Vanderbilt
12	VCU			12	Washington/Marshall
3	Baylor			3	Wisconsin
14	Montana			14	New Mexico St
Albuquerque				Portland
6	San Diego St			6	Cincinnati
11	South Florida			11	Colorado St
7	Notre Dame			7	Creighton
10	California			10	Kansas St
Columbus or Pittsburgh				Greensboro
2	Ohio St/Mich St loser			2	Duke
15	Loyola (MD)			15	Long Island
West				South
1	Missouri			1	North Carolina
16	Miss Valley St/UNC-Asheville			16	Detroit
Omaha				Greensboro
8	St Marys			8	Southern Miss
9	Purdue			9	Alabama
4	Florida St			4	Louisville
13	St. Bonaventure			13	Davidson
Portland				Nashville
5	Wichita St			5	Temple
12	Colorado			12	Harvard
3	Marquette			3	Michigan
14	Belmont			14	South Dakota St
Columbus				Portland
6	Memphis			6	New Mexico
11	NC State			11	Virginia/Tennessee
7	UNLV			7	Florida
10	Connecticut			10	West Virginia
Columbus or Pittsburgh				Omaha
2	Ohio St/Mich St winner			2	Kansas
15	Lehigh			15	Norfolk St
	Last 4 Out	In Today	Out Today		By Conference
	Oregon	Colorado	Arizona		Big East – 9
	BYU	Ohio	Akron		Big Ten – 6
	Dayton	St. Bonaventure	Oregon		SEC – 5
	St Josephs				Big 12 – 5
					ACC – 5
	Next 4 Out				MWC – 4
	Iona				Atlantic 10 – 4
	Mississippi St				CUSA – 3
	Texas				Pac 12 – 3
	Seton Hall				WCC – 2
					MVC – 2

Seed Line Moves: Purdue/California to move Purdue away from a #2 or #3 seed; Connecticut/Colorado St because there were too many Big East and ACC teams at the 11 line.

Final Bracket if St. Bonaventure Wins

 

	Midwest	East	South	West
1	Kentucky	Syracuse	North Carolina	Missouri
2	Ohio St/Mich St loser	Duke	Kansas	Ohio St/Mich St winner
3	Baylor	Wisconsin	Michigan	Marquette
4	Georgetown	Indiana	Louisville	Florida St
5	Murray St	Vanderbilt	Temple	Wichita St
6	San Diego St	Cincinnati	New Mexico	Memphis
7	Notre Dame	Creighton	Florida	UNLV
8	Gonzaga	Iowa St	Southern Miss	St Marys
9	Saint Louis	Xavier	Alabama	Purdue
10	California	Kansas St	West Virginia	Connecticut
11	South Florida	Colorado St	Virginia/Tennessee	NC State
12	VCU	Washington/Marshall	Harvard	Colorado
13	Ohio	Davidson	Long Beach St	St. Bonaventure
14	Montana	New Mexico St	South Dakota St	Belmont
15	Loyola (MD)	Long Island	Norfolk St	Lehigh
16	Western Kentucky/Lamar	Vermont	Detroit	Miss Valley St/UNC-Asheville
	Last 4 Out	In Today	Out Today	By Conference
	Oregon	Colorado	Arizona	Big East – 9
	BYU	Ohio	Akron	Big Ten – 6
	Dayton	St. Bonaventure	Oregon	SEC – 5
	St Josephs			Big 12 – 5
				ACC – 5
	Next 4 Out			MWC – 4
	Iona			Atlantic 10 – 4
	Mississippi St			CUSA – 3
	Texas			Pac 12 – 3
	Seton Hall			WCC – 2
				MVC – 2

Final Bracket if St. Bonaventure Loses

	Midwest	East	South	West
1	Kentucky	Syracuse	North Carolina	Missouri
2	Ohio St/Mich St loser	Duke	Kansas	Ohio St/Mich St winner
3	Baylor	Wisconsin	Michigan	Marquette
4	Georgetown	Indiana	Louisville	Florida St
5	Murray St	Vanderbilt	Temple	Wichita St
6	San Diego St	Cincinnati	New Mexico	Memphis
7	Notre Dame	Creighton	Florida	UNLV
8	Gonzaga	Iowa St	Southern Miss	St Marys
9	Saint Louis	Xavier	Alabama	Purdue
10	California	Kansas St	West Virginia	Connecticut
11	South Florida	Colorado St	NC State	Virginia
12	VCU	Washington/Marshall	Harvard	Oregon/Tennessee
13	Colorado	Ohio	Long Beach St	Davidson
14	Montana	New Mexico St	Belmont	South Dakota St
15	Loyola (MD)	Long Island	Norfolk St	Lehigh
16	Western Kentucky/Lamar	Vermont	Detroit	Miss Valley St/UNC-Asheville
	Last 4 Out	In Today	Out Today	By Conference
	BYU	Colorado	Arizona	Big East – 9
	Dayton	Ohio	Akron	Big Ten – 6
	St Josephs			SEC – 5
	Iona			Big 12 – 5
				ACC – 5
	Next 4 Out			MWC – 4
	Mississippi St			Pac 12 – 4
	Texas			CUSA – 3
	Seton Hall			Atlantic 10 – 3
	Miami (FL)			WCC – 2
				MVC – 2

March 11th Morning Update

I’ve run through scenarios with both Ohio State and Michigan State winning today’s Big 10 championship game.  First of all, Missouri has surpassed Kansas in the S Curve rankings.  When Michigan State wins, they pass Missouri by the slightest of margins.  When Ohio State wins, they remain behind Missouri.  Because of this, I’m going to keep Missouri as a #1 seed.  The winner of the Big 10 championship will be the #2 in the West, the same region as Missouri.  The loser will be #2 in the Midwest, where Kentucky is the #1 seed.

For the scenario where St. Bonaventure wins the A-10 championship, even though Washington is the lowest at-large team in the S Curve rankings, I don’t see any way Oregon would be picked ahead of them.  I will take Oregon out of the field in the case of a St. Bonaventure win.

March 10th 11:30 Update

The Big West and WAC finals haven’t been played yet, but looking at the S Curve rankings after the rest of today’s games, the rankings run against the prevailing consensus.  Marshall’s loss today did not knock them out of the field.  They, along with Tennessee, Oregon, and Washington consist the last 4 teams in.  Last year’s consensus had both Virginia Tech and Colorado in the field, so we’ll have to see what happens this year.  Marshall’s profile is surprisingly strong, the 3rd best non-conference SOS, with wins against Cincinnati (on the road) and Iona.  The only reason Oregon ranks so high is because Stanford beat California in the last game of the regular season.  That win put Stanford into the top 100 of the RPI rankings, which, given Oregon’s 2 wins against Stanford, gave them a 5-8 record against top 100 RPI teams.  Tennessee would be the worst ranked RPI team to ever earn an at-large berth, but a strong conference showing and 2 wins against Florida and wins against Vanderbilt and Connecticut give them a chance for a berth.  Washington, the regular-season champion of the Pac-12, does not have the best overall profile, but no champion of a power conference has been denied an at-large bid since the field expanded to 64 teams.

The Final Bracket will come out in the morning.  By this point the selection committee should have all the at-large teams decided, with contingency plans ready depending on the results of tomorrow’s games.  Here’s a look at those games:

Atlantic 10 Championship (Xavier vs. St. Bonaventure) – Xavier is currently in as a 9 seed, a win against St. Bonaventure should not change their seeding at all.  St. Bonaventure will not be an at-large team, so if they win, one of the final 4 teams in will not make it.  A win will also change the First 4 games since automatic qualifiers can’t play in these games, so any contingency plan based on the Bonnies winning will have to include a reshuffling of the First 4 games.

SEC Championship (Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt) – Kentucky will be the #1 overall seed win or lose.  Vanderbilt looks to be a #5 seed.  Given the fact that the committee did not reseed after last year’s SEC championship game (with Florida a #2 seed even after getting beaten badly by a Kentucky team that ended up seeded 4th), I don’t think the committee will come up with a contingency plan to reseed Vanderbilt in case of a victory.

ACC Championship (North Carolina vs. Florida State) – North Carolina will be a #1 seed regardless.  Florida State looks like a #4 seed.  I don’t believe that Florida State will be seeded higher if they win, for the same reasoning as with the SEC championship game.

Big 10 Championship (Michigan State vs. Ohio State) – Currently, both of these teams look like #2 seeds.  The question is, would the winner of this championship game be able to leapfrog either Missouri or Kansas for the last #1 seed?  In the morning, I will run through both scenarios to see if the winner of this game would be in the top 4 of the S Curve rankings.  If so, then I believe the committee may come up with a similar contingency plan to put the Big 10 champion as the last #1 seed.

Two final brackets will be posted tomorrow, one in case of a St. Bonaventure win and one in case of a loss.

 

March 10th Bracket

Midwest				East
1	Kentucky			1	Syracuse
16	Western Kentucky/Vermont			16	UNC-Asheville
Louisville				Pittsburgh
8	Iowa St			8	Saint Louis
9	Gonzaga			9	Colorado St
4	Murray St			4	Florida St
13	Arizona			13	Akron
Nashville				Albuquerque
5	Temple			5	Wichita St
12	Washington/Marshall			12	Oregon/Tennessee
3	Marquette			3	Baylor
14	New Mexico St			14	Montana
Portland				Albuquerque
6	New Mexico			6	Memphis
11	South Florida			11	Connecticut
7	Creighton			7	Florida
10	Kansas St			10	NC State
Columbus				Pittsburgh
2	Michigan St			2	Ohio St
15	Loyola (MD)			15	Long Island
West				South
1	Kansas			1	North Carolina
16	Detroit			16	Miss Valley St/Lamar
Omaha				Greensboro
8	St Marys			8	Southern Miss
9	Alabama			9	Purdue
4	Indiana			4	Georgetown
13	Long Beach St			13	Davidson
Columbus				Nashville
5	Louisville			5	Vanderbilt
12	Harvard			12	VCU
3	Michigan			3	Wisconsin
14	South Dakota St			14	Belmont
Portland				Louisville
6	San Diego St			6	Cincinnati
11	Xavier			11	Virginia
7	Notre Dame			7	UNLV
10	California			10	West Virginia
Greensboro				Omaha
2	Duke			2	Missouri
15	Norfolk St			15	Lehigh
	In The Mix	In Today	Out Today		By Conference
	BYU	Marshall	Dayton		Big East – 9
	Dayton	Arizona	BYU		Big Ten – 6
	St Josephs	New Mexico St	Nevada		SEC – 5
	Iona				Big 12 – 5
	Texas				ACC – 5
	Mississippi St				MWC – 4
	Colorado				Pac 12 – 4
	Massachusetts				CUSA – 3
	Miami (FL)				Atlantic 10 – 3
	Seton Hall				WCC – 2
					MVC – 2

March 9th Bracket 7:00 Update

Marshall in, BYU out.

Marshall will most likely be out with a loss in tomorrow’s CUSA championship game, so I don’t see them ultimately getting an at-large bid.

There is zero chance that Drexel will be given an at-large bid on Sunday.  I will eat my computer if that happens.  Seriously, I will give up this blog and never try to predict the tournament selections ever again.  Selecting Drexel would go against everything the committee has talked about regarding schedule strength for at least the last 10 years, if not more.  I don’t know what’s going on at ESPN, Lunardi should know better.  Katz and Gotttlieb started campaigning for a 2-bid CAA about a month ago.  The league is way down this year.  Drexel’s overall and non-conference SOS are both around 220.  There is no way they get selected.

Look for UVA to have a seeding much lower than most predict.  Their non-conference SOS is terrible, they only have 6 healthy scholarship players, and they don’t have that many good wins.  I have them at 12 now, just outside the play-in games.

One question I’ve had regarding this year’s selections is how strong Conference USA is perceived by the committee.  Are they at the same level as the Missouri Valley or the Pac 12, or more like the Horizon League or the West Coast Conference?  Right now, I have them at the same level as the Pac 12.  I may change that before Sunday, which would drop Memphis and Southern Miss about one seed each.

 

March 9th Bracket

Midwest				East
1	Kentucky			1	Syracuse
16	Western Kentucky/Vermont			16	UNC-Asheville
Louisville				Pittsburgh
8	Gonzaga			8	Iowa St
9	Purdue			9	Alabama
4	Florida St			4	Murray St
13	VCU			13	Akron
Nashville				Albuquerque
5	Notre Dame			5	Wichita St
12	Oregon/Dayton			12	Washington/BYU
3	Michigan			3	Wisconsin
14	Belmont			14	Montana
Columbus				Portland
6	UNLV			6	San Diego St
11	Xavier			11	Tennessee
7	Southern Miss			7	Cincinnati
10	Virginia			10	Kansas St
Omaha				Greensboro
2	Missouri			2	Duke
15	Long Island			15	Loyola (MD)
South				West
1	North Carolina			1	Kansas
16	Detroit			16	Miss Valley St/Lamar
Greensboro				Omaha
8	Creighton			8	New Mexico
9	Colorado St			9	California
4	Georgetown			4	Indiana
13	Long Beach St			13	Nevada
Louisville				Nashville
5	Temple			5	Louisville
12	Harvard			12	NC State
3	Baylor			3	Marquette
14	Davidson			14	South Dakota St
Albuquerque				Portland
6	Vanderbilt			6	Memphis
11	South Florida			11	West Virginia
7	St Marys			7	Florida
10	Connecticut			10	Saint Louis
Pittsburgh				Columbus
2	Ohio St			2	Michigan St
15	Lehigh			15	Norfolk St
	In The Mix	In Today	Out Today		By Conference
	St Josephs	BYU	Mississippi St		Big East – 9
	Marshall	Lamar	TX Arlington		Big Ten – 6
	Texas				SEC – 5
	Mississippi St				Big 12 – 5
	Miami (FL)				ACC – 5
	Iona				Atlantic 10 – 4
	Arizona				MWC – 4
	UCF				Pac 12 – 3
	Seton Hall				WCC – 3
	Mississippi				CUSA – 2
					MVC – 2

March 8th Bracket

Midwest				East
1	Kentucky			1	Syracuse
16	Western Kentucky/Vermont			16	TX Arlington
Louisville				Pittsburgh
8	Cincinnati			8	Alabama
9	Purdue			9	Gonzaga
4	Wichita St			4	Indiana
13	Nevada			13	VCU
Albuquerque				Nashville
5	Florida St			5	Temple
12	Xavier/Mississippi St			12	Harvard
3	Michigan			3	Baylor
14	Belmont			14	Montana
Columbus				Albuquerque
6	Louisville			6	UNLV
11	Virginia			11	Oregon
7	Southern Miss			7	Florida
10	California			10	South Florida
Omaha				Greensboro
2	Missouri			2	Duke
15	Long Island			15	Loyola (MD)
South				West
1	North Carolina			1	Kansas
16	Detroit			16	Miss Valley St/UNC-Asheville
Greensboro				Omaha
8	St Marys			8	New Mexico
9	Colorado St			9	Connecticut
4	Murray St			4	Wisconsin
13	Long Beach St			13	Akron
Portland				Nashville
5	Notre Dame			5	Vanderbilt
12	Tennessee			12	Washington/Dayton
3	Georgetown			3	Marquette
14	Davidson			14	South Dakota St
Louisville				Portland
6	San Diego St			6	Memphis
11	NC State			11	West Virginia
7	Creighton			7	Iowa St
10	Kansas St			10	Saint Louis
Pittsburgh				Columbus
2	Ohio St			2	Michigan St
15	Lehigh			15	Norfolk St
	In The Mix	In Today	Out Today		By Conference
	BYU	Mississippi St	St Josephs		Big East – 9
	St Josephs	Long Island	Robert Morris		Big Ten – 6
	Marshall	Lehigh	Bucknell		SEC – 6
	Miami (FL)				Big 12 – 5
	Texas				ACC – 5
	Iona				Atlantic 10 – 4
	Northwestern				MWC – 4
	Seton Hall				Pac 12 – 3
	UCF				WCC – 2
	Mississippi				CUSA – 2
	Arizona				MVC – 2

March 7th Bracket

Midwest				East
1	Kentucky			1	Syracuse
16	Western Kentucky/Vermont			16	TX Arlington
Louisville				Pittsburgh
8	Cincinnati			8	Alabama
9	Purdue			9	Gonzaga
4	Wichita St			4	Indiana
13	Nevada			13	VCU
Albuquerque				Nashville
5	Florida St			5	Temple
12	Dayton			12	Harvard
3	Michigan			3	Baylor
14	Belmont			14	Montana
Columbus				Albuquerque
6	Southern Miss			6	UNLV
11	South Florida			11	Oregon
7	Louisville			7	Florida
10	California			10	West Virginia
Omaha				Greensboro
2	Missouri			2	Duke
15	Robert Morris			15	Loyola (MD)
South				West
1	North Carolina			1	Kansas
16	Detroit			16	Miss Valley St/UNC-Asheville
Greensboro				Omaha
8	Iowa St			8	St Marys
9	Colorado St			9	Connecticut
4	Murray St			4	Wisconsin
13	Long Beach St			13	Akron
Nashville				Portland
5	Notre Dame			5	Vanderbilt
12	Tennessee/Xavier			12	Washington/St Josephs
3	Georgetown			3	Marquette
14	Davidson			14	South Dakota St
Louisville				Portland
6	San Diego St			6	Memphis
11	NC State			11	Virginia
7	Creighton			7	New Mexico
10	Saint Louis			10	Kansas St
Pittsburgh				Columbus
2	Ohio St			2	Michigan St
15	Bucknell			15	Norfolk St
	In The Mix	In Today	Out Today		By Conference
	Mississippi St	Detroit	Valparaiso		Big East – 9
	BYU				Big Ten – 6
	Marshall				SEC – 5
	Seton Hall				Big 12 – 5
	Miami (FL)				ACC – 5
	Texas				Atlantic 10 – 5
	Iona				MWC – 4
	Northwestern				Pac 12 – 3
	Arizona				WCC – 2
	UCF				CUSA – 2
	Mississippi				MVC – 2