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FINAL BRACKET 2015

Midwest   East
1 Kentucky 1 Villanova
16 Robert Morris/Lafayette 16 North Florida
Louisville Pittsburgh
8 Iowa 8 NC State
9 St Johns 9 Davidson
4 West Virginia 4 Oklahoma
13 Harvard 13 Valparaiso
Portland Jacksonville
5 VCU 5 SMU
12 Buffalo 12 Stephen F Austin
3 Notre Dame 3 Maryland
14 Northeastern 14 Albany
Louisville Columbus
6 Butler 6 Georgetown
11 Ohio St/BYU 11 Oklahoma St/Miami (FL)
7 Wichita St 7 Oregon
10 Colorado St 10 Texas
Omaha Charlotte
2 Kansas 2 Duke
15 New Mexico St 15 Coastal Carolina
South West
1 Wisconsin 1 Arizona
16 North Dakota St/Hampton 16 Manhattan
Columbus Portland
8 Utah 8 Mississippi
9 Cincinnati 9 San Diego St
4 Arkansas 4 North Carolina
13 UC Irvine 13 Georgia St
Seattle Pittsburgh
5 Providence 5 Michigan St
12 Wyoming 12 Wofford
3 Baylor 3 Iowa St
14 UAB 14 Eastern Washington
Jacksonville Omaha
6 Northern Iowa 6 Louisville
11 Dayton 11 Temple
7 Xavier 7 LSU
10 Georgia 10 Purdue
Charlotte Seattle
2 Virginia 2 Gonzaga
15 Belmont 15 Texas Southern
Last 4 In By Conference
Miami (FL) ACC – 7
Oklahoma St Big 12 – 7
Ohio St Big 10 – 6
BYU Big East – 6
SEC – 5
First 4 Out Next 4 Out AAC – 3
Boise St Rhode Island Pac 12 – 3
Indiana Old Dominion Atl 10 – 3
Tulsa Richmond MWC – 3
Texas A&M St Marys MVC – 2
WCC – 2

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March 15th Morning Update

Midwest   East
1 Kentucky 1 Villanova
16 Robert Morris/Lafayette 16 North Florida
Louisville Pittsburgh
8 Iowa 8 NC State
9 St Johns 9 Davidson
4 West Virginia 4 Oklahoma
13 Harvard 13 Valparaiso
Portland Jacksonville
5 VCU 5 SMU
12 Buffalo 12 Stephen F Austin
3 Notre Dame 3 Maryland
14 Northeastern 14 Albany
Louisville Columbus
6 Butler 6 Georgetown
11 Ohio St/BYU 11 Oklahoma St/Miami (FL)
7 Wichita St 7 Oregon
10 Colorado St 10 Texas
Omaha Charlotte
2 Kansas 2 Duke
15 New Mexico St 15 Coastal Carolina
South West
1 Wisconsin 1 Arizona
16 North Dakota St/Hampton 16 Manhattan
Columbus Portland
8 Utah 8 Mississippi
9 Cincinnati 9 San Diego St
4 Arkansas 4 North Carolina
13 UC Irvine 13 Georgia St
Seattle Pittsburgh
5 Providence 5 Michigan St
12 Wyoming 12 Wofford
3 Baylor 3 Iowa St
14 UAB 14 Eastern Washington
Jacksonville Omaha
6 Northern Iowa 6 Louisville
11 Dayton 11 Temple
7 Xavier 7 LSU
10 Georgia 10 Purdue
Charlotte Seattle
2 Virginia 2 Gonzaga
15 Belmont 15 Texas Southern
Last 4 In In Today Out Today   By Conference
Miami (FL) BYU Tulsa ACC – 7
Oklahoma St Buffalo CMU Big 12 – 7
Ohio St Hampton Delaware St Big 10 – 6
BYU Big East – 6
SEC – 5
First 4 Out AAC – 3
Boise St Pac 12 – 3
Indiana Atl 10 – 3
Tulsa MWC – 3
Texas A&M MVC – 2

I’ve tried to account for Tulsa’s loss to SE Oklahoma St by adding a bad loss to their schedule and recalculating their S-curve ranking.  That change moves them outside of the field, and moves BYU in.

If UConn wins this afternoon, I have them as a 12 seed, moving Wyoming up to an 11 seed, and moving BYU out of the field.  I have Dayton as the team that would be added to the First Four in this scenario.

For this afternoon’s Big 10 championship game, I have Wisconsin staying as a #1 seed if they win.  If they lose, I believe Duke will be moved to the #1 seed in the South, Wisconsin will be the #2 seed in the South, and UVA will be the #2 seed in the East.

One last thing, I know that Boise St won the regular season MWC championship and had a good season, but their non-conference schedule strength ranking is 257.  Don’t be shocked if they are left out of the field, since the committee has emphasized this over and over again over the years.

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March 15th Bracket

Midwest   East
1 Kentucky 1 Villanova
16 Robert Morris/Lafayette 16 North Florida
Louisville Pittsburgh
8 NC State 8 Mississippi
9 St Johns 9 Cincinnati
4 SMU 4 Oklahoma
13 Harvard 13 Valparaiso
Portland Jacksonville
5 West Virginia 5 VCU
12 Stephen F Austin 12 Buffalo
3 Notre Dame 3 Maryland
14 Northeastern 14 Albany
Louisville Pittsburgh
6 Georgetown 6 Oregon
11 Ohio St/Tulsa 11 Oklahoma St
7 Wichita St 7 Butler
10 Colorado St 10 Texas
Omaha Charlotte
2 Kansas 2 Virginia
15 Coastal Carolina 15 Belmont
West South
1 Duke 1 Wisconsin
16 Manhattan 16 North Dakota St/Hampton
Charlotte Columbus
8 Iowa 8 LSU
9 San Diego St 9 Davidson
4 Arkansas 4 North Carolina
13 Georgia St 13 UC Irvine
Seattle Jacksonville
5 Michigan St 5 Providence
12 Wyoming 12 Wofford
3 Iowa St 3 Baylor
14 Eastern Washington 14 UAB
Omaha Columbus
6 Louisville 6 Northern Iowa
11 Georgia 11 Dayton/Miami (FL)
7 Utah 7 Xavier
10 Purdue 10 Temple
Seattle Portland
2 Gonzaga 2 Arizona
15 New Mexico St 15 Texas Southern
Last 4 In In Today Out Today   By Conference
Dayton Wyoming BYU ACC – 7
Miami (FL) Buffalo CMU Big 12 – 7
Ohio St Hampton Delaware St Big 10 – 6
Tulsa Big East – 6
SEC – 5
First 4 Out AAC – 4
BYU Pac 12 – 3
Indiana Atl 10 – 3
Boise St MWC – 3
Texas A&M MVC – 2

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March 14th Bracket

Midwest   East
1 Kentucky 1 Villanova
16 Robert Morris/Lafayette 16 North Florida
Louisville Pittsburgh
8 NC State 8 Davidson
9 San Diego St 9 Mississippi
4 West Virginia 4 Oklahoma
13 Harvard 13 Valparaiso
Pittsburgh Jacksonville
5 SMU 5 Louisville
12 Dayton/BYU 12 Stephen F Austin
3 Notre Dame 3 Maryland
14 UAB 14 Eastern Washington
Louisville Columbus
6 Butler 6 Georgetown
11 Oklahoma St 11 Colorado St
7 Oregon 7 Wichita St
10 Temple 10 Texas
Omaha Charlotte
2 Kansas 2 Virginia
15 Coastal Carolina 15 Belmont
West South
1 Wisconsin 1 Duke
16 New Mexico St 16 North Dakota St/Delaware St
Columbus Charlotte
8 LSU 8 Iowa
9 St Johns 9 Cincinnati
4 North Carolina 4 Arkansas
13 UC Irvine 13 Georgia St
Seattle Portland
5 VCU 5 Providence
12 Wofford 12 CMU
3 Iowa St 3 Baylor
14 Northeastern 14 Albany
Omaha Jacksonville
6 Northern Iowa 6 Michigan St
11 Miami (FL)/Ohio St 11 Tulsa
7 Utah 7 Xavier
10 Purdue 10 Georgia
Seattle Portland
2 Gonzaga 2 Arizona
15 Manhattan 15 Texas Southern
Last 4 In In Today Out Today   By Conference
Miami (FL) Dayton Indiana ACC – 7
Ohio St BYU Boise St Big 12 – 7
Dayton UAB UTEP Big 10 – 6
BYU UC Irvine UC Davis Big East – 6
Delaware St NC Central SEC – 5
First 4 Out AAC – 4
Boise St Pac 12 – 3
Indiana Atl 10 – 3
Texas A&M MWC – 2
Rhode Island MVC – 2
WCC – 2

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March 13th Bracket

Midwest   East
1 Kentucky 1 Duke
16 Robert Morris/NC Central 16 Manhattan/Lafayette
Louisville Charlotte
8 Xavier 8 Oregon
9 Davidson 9 St Johns
4 Notre Dame 4 Providence
13 Stephen F Austin 13 Harvard
Columbus Portland
5 SMU 5 Louisville
12 Indiana/Boise St 12 UTEP
3 Maryland 3 Oklahoma
14 Albany 14 Eastern Washington
Pittsburgh Jacksonville
6 Wichita St 6 Butler
11 Texas 11 Miami (FL)/Tulsa
7 LSU 7 Utah
10 Ohio St 10 Georgia
Omaha Columbus
2 Kansas 2 Wisconsin
15 Coastal Carolina 15 Belmont
West South
1 Virginia 1 Villanova
16 North Florida 16 North Dakota St
Charlotte Pittsburgh
8 Cincinnati 8 NC State
9 Mississippi 9 Purdue
4 West Virginia 4 North Carolina
13 UC Davis 13 Valparaiso
Seattle Louisville
5 Georgetown 5 Arkansas
12 Oklahoma St 12 CMU
3 Iowa St 3 Baylor
14 Georgia St 14 Northeastern
Omaha Jacksonville
6 VCU 6 Northern Iowa
11 Wofford 11 Temple
7 Iowa 7 Michigan St
10 Colorado St 10 San Diego St
Seattle Portland
2 Gonzaga 2 Arizona
15 New Mexico St 15 Texas Southern
Last 4 In In Today Out Today   By Conference
Miami (FL) Indiana Dayton ACC – 7
Tulsa Boise St Texas A&M Big 12 – 7
Indiana UTEP Old Dominion Big 10 – 7
Boise St Big East – 6
SEC – 5
First 4 Out AAC – 4
Dayton Pac 12 – 3
BYU MWC – 3
Texas A&M Atl 10 – 2
Old Dominion MVC – 2

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March 12th Bracket

Midwest   East
1 Kentucky 1 Duke
16 Robert Morris/NC Central 16 Manhattan/Lafayette
Louisville Charlotte
8 NC State 8 St Johns
9 Xavier 9 Georgia
4 Notre Dame 4 West Virginia
13 Stephen F Austin 13 Harvard
Pittsburgh Louisville
5 Providence 5 SMU
12 CMU 12 Ohio St/Texas A&M
3 Maryland 3 Oklahoma
14 Albany 14 Eastern Washington
Columbus Omaha
6 LSU 6 VCU
11 Tulsa/Dayton 11 Colorado St
7 Wichita St 7 Utah
10 Purdue 10 Miami (FL)
Omaha Columbus
2 Kansas 2 Wisconsin
15 Coastal Carolina 15 Belmont
West South
1 Virginia 1 Villanova
16 North Florida 16 North Dakota St
Charlotte Pittsburgh
8 Mississippi 8 Cincinnati
9 Davidson 9 Oregon
4 North Carolina 4 Louisville
13 UC Davis 13 Valparaiso
Seattle Jacksonville
5 Butler 5 Arkansas
12 Old Dominion 12 Wofford
3 Iowa St 3 Baylor
14 Georgia St 14 Northeastern
Portland Jacksonville
6 Georgetown 6 Northern Iowa
11 Temple 11 San Diego St
7 Michigan St 7 Iowa
10 Texas 10 Oklahoma St
Seattle Portland
2 Gonzaga 2 Arizona
15 New Mexico St 15 Texas Southern
Last 4 In In Today Out Today   By Conference
Tulsa Dayton Boise St ACC – 7
Dayton Big 12 – 7
Texas A&M Big East – 6
Ohio St SEC – 6
Big 10 – 6
First 4 Out AAC – 4
Boise St Pac 12 – 3
BYU Atl 10 – 3
Indiana MWC – 2
Richmond MVC – 2

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Some notes from the middle of Championship Week

–My biggest pet peeve of this week:  There is nothing in the bracketing guidelines about sending a team to the closest region/pod by mileage.  The wording is this:

Teams will remain in or as close to their
areas of natural interest as possible. A team
moved out of its natural area will be placed in the
next closest region to the extent possible. If two
teams from the same natural region are in
contention for the same bracket position, the
team ranked higher in the seed list shall remain
in its natural region.

In 2010, the 2 closest locations for #1 seeded Kentucky to play in were Milwaukee and New Orleans, with Milwaukee actually being closer to Lexington.  The NCAA put Kentucky in New Orleans, because that is their “area of natural interest”.  So it doesn’t actually matter how far away Charlotte and Pittsburgh are from Charlottesville, UVA could end up in either place since both locations are in UVA’s “area of interest”, though it’s more likely Charlotte would be given druthers since it’s been ACC country for a longer period of time.

–Tulsa lost to a Division 2 team earlier this season. My formula only takes into account games against Division 1 opponents. While their game doesn’t factor into their RPI or computer rankings, it does appear on the team sheets provided to members of the selection committee. I may have to tweak my formula this week to account for this. As of now, I have Tulsa in the field, if they are on the bubble come Selection Sunday, it will be interesting to hear how much of an effect this loss did or did not have on the committee’s selection.

–It’s been several years since I had to change my formula mid-season. While I techincally did not change the formula this season, I did have to make a workaround for an unusual situation. San Diego St, Colorado St, and Boise St were all being held down by the fact that I use Conference RPI in my S-Curve calculation, and the fact that San Jose St is a historically terrible mid/high-major team this season. Since this was affecting these teams so much, I have actually moved San Jose St into the WAC for my calculations, which has brought the Conference RPI of the MWC up quite a bit. I’m not happy with having to do this, but it’s difficult to model for such extreme situations. It may have been better to just take San Jose out of the calculation entirely, I’ll be looking into this later in the week.

–The bubble seems unusally thin this season. There are very few teams that look like they could make a late run through the conference tournament and grab an at-large bid. UCLA and Illinois are the only 2 teams I can think of that have a chance to go from “definitely out” to “probably in” with a strong conference tournament run. That’s a good thing for teams like Miami and BYU that are squarely on the bubble.

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