1-68 Seed List Analysis

Here’s a breakdown of the full seed list (committee’s and mine).  Light red are teams I over-seeded by 6-10 spots.  Dark red are teams I overseeded by more than 10 spots.  Light green are underseeded by 6-10 spots.  Dark green are underseeded by more than 10 spots. The true seed is not the actual seed in the bracket, but where the teams would have been placed if not for bracket restrictions.

The biggest trend I see is that the teams that were underseeded had high conference RPIs and the teams that were overseeded had lower conference RPIs.  I stopped using conference RPI as a metric a few years ago in favor of using categories to delineate BCS Power conferences, Mid-Majors, and small conferences.  With the breakup of the Big East, it may be a good time to go back to using conference RPI as it’s unclear if the new Big East would be considered a power conference or not.

Although the committee talked about road record, I don’t see a powerful influence in how the teams were seeded.  This is the same as last season, where road record is sometimes used as a justification, even if there is not much of a correlation to seeding.  I still have road/neutral record as a metric in the S-Curve calculation, but de-emphasized it after last season.

Committee True Seed Me (after fixing Polls) Reason
Louisville 1 Louisville  
Kansas 1 Gonzaga  
Indiana 1 Kansas  
Gonzaga 1 Indiana  
Miami (FL) 2 Miami (FL)  
Duke 2 Duke  
Georgetown 2 Ohio St.  
Ohio State 2 Georgetown  
New Mexico 3 New Mexico  
Florida 3 Florida  
Michigan St. 3 Michigan St.  
Marquette 3 Marquette  
Michigan 4 Arizona over
Kansas St. 4 Kansas St.  
Saint Louis 4 UCLA injury
Syracuse 4 Michigan  
Oklahoma St. 5 Saint Louis  
UNLV 5 Wisconsin  
Wisconsin 5 Oklahoma St.  
VCU 5 Syracuse  
Arizona 6 Memphis  
Butler 6 Butler  
Memphis 6 North Carolina over
UCLA 6 VCU  
Creighton 7 UNLV under
San Diego St. 7 Pittsburgh  
Notre Dame 7 Oregon injury
Illinois 7 Minnesota over
North Carolina 8 Missouri  
Colorado St. 8 N.C. St.  
Pittsburgh 8 Temple  
North Carolina St. 8 Belmont over
Missouri 9 Notre Dame under
Temple 9 Illinois under
Wichita St. 9 Creighton under
Colorado 9 Colorado St. under
Cincinnati 10 St. Mary’s over
Villanova 10 California 2nd team out
Iowa St. 10 Middle Tenn. St. over
Oklahoma 10 Wichita St.  
Minnesota 11 Oklahoma  
California 11 Colorado under
Oregon 11 Kentucky first 5 out, injury
Belmont 11 San Diego St. under
Boise St. 12 Iowa St. under
St. Mary’s (CA) 12 Mississippi  
Ole Miss 12 La Salle  
Bucknell 12 Cincinnati under
La Salle 12 Akron  
Middle Tenn. State 12 Boise St.  
Akron 13 Bucknell  
New Mexico St. 13 New Mexico St.  
South Dakota St. 13 Davidson  
Montana 13 Valparaiso  
Davidson 14 Montana  
Valparaiso 14 South Dakota St.  
Northwestern St. 14 Fla Gulf Coast  
Harvard 14 Harvard  
FGCU 15 Northwestern St.  
Pacific 15 Pacific  
Iona 15 Iona  
Albany (NY) 15 Albany  
Western Ky. 16 West. Kentucky  
Southern U. 16 Southern  
LIU Brooklyn 16 James Madison  
James Madison 16 Long Island  
N.C. A&T 16 N.C. A&T  
Liberty 16 Liberty  
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