March 9th Bracket and Small Sample Simulations

No new bracket today, as there are no changes from yesterday.

I ran a small sample of simulations (2000) today, which included simulations of today’s games.  In those simulations, Akron lost 507 times, so I’ve included the Bid Odds here for those 507 simulations.  It’s an extremely small sample size compared to the 10,000 simulations I’ve been running, but I thought it might be instructive in any case:

 
Team ConferenceID Bid % Auto Bid % AdjWinPct Total Bids # At Large Bids At Large %
Florida SEC 100.0% 82.1% 0.9728 507 91 100.0%
Indiana Big10 100.0% 50.7% 0.9682 507 250 100.0%
Duke ACC 100.0% 51.1% 0.9681 507 248 100.0%
Louisville BigE 100.0% 46.0% 0.9644 507 274 100.0%
Syracuse BigE 100.0% 20.3% 0.9510 507 404 100.0%
Kansas Big12 100.0% 48.9% 0.9454 507 259 100.0%
Minnesota Big10 100.0% 6.9% 0.9376 507 472 100.0%
Gonzaga WCC 100.0% 69.8% 0.9349 507 153 100.0%
Miami (FL) ACC 100.0% 28.8% 0.9348 507 361 100.0%
New Mexico MWC 100.0% 35.3% 0.9324 507 328 100.0%
Michigan St. Big10 100.0% 14.6% 0.9312 507 433 100.0%
Michigan Big10 100.0% 11.4% 0.9275 507 449 100.0%
Pittsburgh BigE 100.0% 8.5% 0.9240 507 464 100.0%
VCU Atl10 100.0% 40.8% 0.9176 507 300 100.0%
Marquette BigE 100.0% 10.5% 0.9116 507 454 100.0%
Arizona Pac12 100.0% 36.1% 0.9109 507 324 100.0%
Ohio St. Big10 100.0% 10.3% 0.9090 507 455 100.0%
Wisconsin Big10 100.0% 4.3% 0.9086 507 485 100.0%
Georgetown BigE 100.0% 8.9% 0.9011 507 462 100.0%
Colorado St. MWC 100.0% 22.9% 0.8977 507 391 100.0%
Creighton MVC 100.0% 46.2% 0.8970 507 273 100.0%
UNLV MWC 100.0% 22.1% 0.8963 507 395 100.0%
San Diego St. MWC 100.0% 14.8% 0.8963 507 432 100.0%
Oklahoma St. Big12 100.0% 12.2% 0.8926 507 445 100.0%
North Carolina ACC 100.0% 12.4% 0.8898 507 444 100.0%
Missouri SEC 100.0% 9.3% 0.8808 507 460 100.0%
Oklahoma Big12 100.0% 14.4% 0.8802 507 434 100.0%
UCLA Pac12 100.0% 17.0% 0.8754 507 421 100.0%
N.C. St. ACC 100.0% 5.7% 0.8751 507 478 100.0%
Saint Louis Atl10 100.0% 19.9% 0.8732 507 406 100.0%
Kansas St. Big12 100.0% 12.8% 0.8708 507 442 100.0%
Belmont OVC 100.0% 76.1% 0.8705 507 121 100.0%
Memphis CUSA 100.0% 61.9% 0.8692 507 193 100.0%
Colorado Pac12 100.0% 12.6% 0.8665 507 443 100.0%
Illinois Big10 100.0% 1.8% 0.8606 507 498 100.0%
St. Mary’s WCC 100.0% 21.7% 0.8528 507 397 100.0%
Wichita St. MVC 100.0% 27.4% 0.8485 507 368 100.0%
Notre Dame BigE 100.0% 1.6% 0.8439 507 499 100.0%
Butler Atl10 100.0% 10.5% 0.8415 507 454 100.0%
Middle Tenn. St. SBelt 100.0% 74.4% 0.8315 507 130 100.0%
Oregon Pac12 100.0% 13.4% 0.8207 507 439 100.0%
California Pac12 100.0% 7.3% 0.8207 507 470 100.0%
Temple Atl10 99.8% 5.7% 0.8087 506 477 99.8%
La Salle Atl10 98.2% 13.4% 0.8374 498 430 97.9%
Cincinnati BigE 86.2% 2.4% 0.8709 437 425 85.9%
Villanova BigE 77.1% 1.0% 0.8186 391 386 76.9%
Iowa St. Big12 70.6% 2.0% 0.8296 358 348 70.0%
Akron MAC 82.6% 48.3% 0.7724 419 174 66.4%
Kentucky SEC 53.1% 3.9% 0.8563 269 249 51.1%
Boise St. MWC 38.7% 2.4% 0.8191 196 184 37.2%
Tennessee SEC 33.5% 0.8% 0.8029 170 166 33.0%
Mississippi SEC 24.7% 1.2% 0.7905 125 119 23.8%
Louisiana Tech WAC 32.5% 25.4% 0.6989 165 36 9.5%
Southern Miss CUSA 26.2% 21.1% 0.7966 133 26 6.5%
Alabama SEC 4.5% 1.4% 0.7653 23 16 3.2%
Virginia ACC 3.7% 0.6% 0.8009 19 16 3.2%
Bucknell Patr 59.8% 58.8% 0.7076 303 5 2.4%
Xavier Atl10 3.4% 3.0% 0.7527 17 2 0.4%
Massachusetts Atl10 2.6% 2.4% 0.7377 13 1 0.2%

There are now 44 teams with a 98% chance or better of getting an at-large bid.  That leaves only 6 of the teams currently in that need to improve their resume with victories this weekend or in their conference tournaments (Cincinnati, Villanova, Iowa St, Kentucky, Boise St, and Tennessee).  Of the teams on the outside looking in, only Mississippi looks to have a chance of getting an at-large bid without getting to their conference tournament final.  Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, and Bucknell all have to hope for dramatic collapses by the teams currently in the field.  Alabama, Virginia, Xavier, and Massachusetts all need deep runs and other bubble teams to lose out.

As for Akron, their chances of getting in still remain high according to the S-Curve formula, but given that their starting point guard has been arrested, it seems highly unlikely that the committee would take them as an at-large at this point, so I would discount their current 66% odds of getting in.

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