Updated Bid Odds and Other Thoughts

I’ve updated the Bid Odds for each team with a chance at an at-large bid.  Also, biggest movers since Friday (not including last night’s games).  Also included are championship odds for each of the conference tournaments getting underway this week.

These are the final simulations for this season.  I’ve run into difficulty running the simulations almost every time I run them, and the benefit in running them is not worth the effort at this point.  But looking at the final run, it does still seem like the bubble is smaller this year than in other years.  There’s still time for teams to collapse, but I expect that the discussion will focus on just a small handful of teams as Selection Sunday nears.

Also, I’m seeing at other bracket sites that there is a difference of opinion on whether small conference schools like Belmont, Middle Tennessee St, Akron, and Louisiana Tech are deserving of bids.  The S-Curve formula used here is heavily influenced by the previous year’s selections.  Last year, along with the selection of Iona as one of the last 4 in, the committee also released their full S-Curve list, along with the next several teams out.  The first team out, according to the committe, was Oral Roberts, who would have been in the field if St. Bonaventure had lost the Atlantic 10 final.  Also on the first 4 out list were Nevada and Drexel.  So for this year’s S-Curve formula, teams like Belmont and MTSU are solidly in the field, while Akron is probable at this point and Louisiana Tech and Southern Miss have outside chances of an at-large bid.

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