I keep reading online about how Kentucky is supposedly on the bubble. I don’t see it. I have them 28th on the at-large list, nowhere close to the bubble. I think this is a lot like last year, when everyone said Drexel had to be in, which was ludicrous. The “Kentucky is out” talk is almost as crazy. In my simulations run Friday, I had Kentucky with a 94% chance of getting an at-large bid. I’ll run one last set of simulations tonight to see where they stand.
Also, the bubble has gotten really small really early this year. I have UVA, Villanova, Iowa St, and Boise St as my last 4 in. Of the teams outside of that, only Tennessee, Southern Miss, and Mississippi have legitimate chances. Baylor and Arkansas both need improbable wins (against Kansas and Missouri, respectively) to have a chance. Anyone else, like Alabama or Maryland, needs to have a run to the conference finals to have a chance. I have Belmont and Middle Tenn St in, even if they lose their conference tourneys. Akron is probably in, Louisiana Tech probably out.