I’ve done one last set of simulations for the remaining conference tournaments. Here are the teams on the bubble and their respective odds of making the tournament, according to the S-Curve formula.
| Team | At Large % | Conference | Bid % | Auto Bid % | AdjWinPct | Total Bids | # At Large Bids |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Tenn. St. | 100.0% | Sun Belt | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.8194 | 4999 | 4999 |
| Wichita St. | 100.0% | MVC | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.8493 | 4998 | 4998 |
| Colorado | 99.9% | Pac 12 | 99.9% | 9.1% | 0.8674 | 4997 | 4544 |
| Oregon | 99.9% | Pac 12 | 99.9% | 10.4% | 0.7929 | 4996 | 4475 |
| Iowa St. | 96.3% | Big 12 | 96.5% | 4.8% | 0.8484 | 4824 | 4585 |
| La Salle | 87.7% | Atlantic 10 | 89.0% | 10.3% | 0.8359 | 4448 | 3933 |
| Cincinnati | 74.2% | Big East | 74.8% | 2.2% | 0.8672 | 3739 | 3628 |
| Boise St. | 72.7% | MWC | 73.7% | 3.4% | 0.8377 | 3683 | 3515 |
| Tennessee | 52.7% | SEC | 53.4% | 1.6% | 0.8006 | 2671 | 2592 |
| Mississippi | 14.4% | SEC | 15.9% | 1.7% | 0.8041 | 794 | 708 |
| Villanova | 9.8% | Big East | 10.1% | 0.3% | 0.8289 | 507 | 490 |
| Virginia | 1.1% | ACC | 3.7% | 2.7% | 0.7980 | 187 | 53 |
| Akron | 0.1% | MAC | 50.8% | 50.8% | 0.7494 | 2542 | 2 |
There are limitations to using a math model like the S-Curve formula to make these predictions. I would certainly not be surprised if MTSU is left out of the tournament, but their unusual resume has been interpreted by the model as a sure bet to make the dance. Similarly with Virginia, I would not be surprised to see them make the Big Dance. Any resumes that are unusual and have not been seen before by the model may not be interpreted correctly, since there is no track record of how the committee will handle them.
Also, here are the log5 probabilities for all the conference tournament championships yet to be decided:
| Team | Conference | Bid % | Auto Bid % |
| Duke | ACC | 100.0% | 52.5% |
| Miami (FL) | ACC | 100.0% | 29.6% |
| North Carolina | ACC | 100.0% | 9.8% |
| N.C. St. | ACC | 100.0% | 4.2% |
| Virginia | ACC | 3.7% | 2.7% |
| Boston College | ACC | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Maryland | ACC | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Georgia Tech | ACC | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Florida St. | ACC | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Clemson | ACC | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Virginia Tech | ACC | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vermont | AEast | 59.2% | 59.2% |
| Albany | AEast | 40.8% | 40.8% |
| VCU | Atl10 | 100.0% | 35.1% |
| Saint Louis | Atl10 | 100.0% | 27.6% |
| Temple | Atl10 | 100.0% | 11.2% |
| La Salle | Atl10 | 89.0% | 10.3% |
| Butler | Atl10 | 100.0% | 6.8% |
| Richmond | Atl10 | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| Xavier | Atl10 | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| Dayton | Atl10 | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| Massachusetts | Atl10 | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| St. Joseph’s | Atl10 | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| Geo. Washington | Atl10 | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Charlotte | Atl10 | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Indiana | Big10 | 100.0% | 51.3% |
| Michigan St. | Big10 | 100.0% | 17.8% |
| Ohio St. | Big10 | 100.0% | 12.7% |
| Michigan | Big10 | 100.0% | 8.1% |
| Wisconsin | Big10 | 100.0% | 4.8% |
| Minnesota | Big10 | 100.0% | 4.0% |
| Iowa | Big10 | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Illinois | Big10 | 100.0% | 0.6% |
| Purdue | Big10 | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Nebraska | Big10 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kansas | Big12 | 100.0% | 43.0% |
| Oklahoma St. | Big12 | 100.0% | 20.0% |
| Kansas St. | Big12 | 100.0% | 14.6% |
| Baylor | Big12 | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Oklahoma | Big12 | 100.0% | 7.0% |
| Iowa St. | Big12 | 96.5% | 4.8% |
| Texas | Big12 | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| West Virginia | Big12 | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Louisville | BigE | 100.0% | 46.1% |
| Syracuse | BigE | 100.0% | 14.8% |
| Georgetown | BigE | 100.0% | 13.9% |
| Pittsburgh | BigE | 100.0% | 11.2% |
| Marquette | BigE | 100.0% | 9.3% |
| Cincinnati | BigE | 74.8% | 2.2% |
| Notre Dame | BigE | 100.0% | 1.8% |
| Villanova | BigE | 10.1% | 0.3% |
| Providence | BigE | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| St. John’s | BigE | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| South Florida | BigE | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pacific | BigW | 32.7% | 32.7% |
| Long Beach St. | BigW | 22.9% | 22.9% |
| Cal Poly | BigW | 13.2% | 13.2% |
| UC Irvine | BigW | 12.2% | 12.2% |
| UCSB | BigW | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| Hawaii | BigW | 5.3% | 5.3% |
| UC Davis | BigW | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| CSU Fullerton | BigW | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Montana | Bsky | 44.1% | 44.1% |
| Weber St. | Bsky | 42.4% | 42.4% |
| Northern Colorado | Bsky | 4.6% | 4.6% |
| North Dakota | Bsky | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Northern Arizona | Bsky | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| Montana St. | Bsky | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Southern Utah | Bsky | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Memphis | CUSA | 100.0% | 59.7% |
| Southern Miss | CUSA | 21.7% | 21.7% |
| UTEP | CUSA | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| East Carolina | CUSA | 5.1% | 5.1% |
| Tulsa | CUSA | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| UAB | CUSA | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| Tulane | CUSA | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Marshall | CUSA | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Houston | CUSA | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| SMU | CUSA | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Valparaiso | Hrz | 73.3% | 73.3% |
| Wright St. | Hrz | 26.7% | 26.7% |
| N.C. Central | MEAC | 37.2% | 37.2% |
| Savannah St. | MEAC | 21.2% | 21.2% |
| Norfolk St. | MEAC | 17.7% | 17.7% |
| Morgan St. | MEAC | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| N.C. A&T | MEAC | 4.9% | 4.9% |
| Bethune-Cookman | MEAC | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| Hampton | MEAC | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Delaware St. | MEAC | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Coppin St. | MEAC | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| Howard | MEAC | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| S. Carolina St. | MEAC | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Florida A&M | MEAC | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| MD Eastern Shore | MEAC | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Akron | MAC | 50.8% | 50.8% |
| Ohio | MAC | 34.0% | 34.0% |
| Kent St. | MAC | 9.6% | 9.6% |
| W. Michigan | MAC | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Buffalo | MAC | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| East. Michigan | MAC | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Bowling Green | MAC | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Miami (OH) | MAC | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Ball St. | MAC | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| North Dakota St. | Smmt | 46.5% | 46.5% |
| South Dakota St. | Smmt | 34.7% | 34.7% |
| Western Ill. | Smmt | 16.6% | 16.6% |
| IPFW | Smmt | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| New Mexico | MWC | 100.0% | 32.7% |
| Colorado St. | MWC | 100.0% | 28.9% |
| UNLV | MWC | 100.0% | 18.1% |
| San Diego St. | MWC | 100.0% | 13.2% |
| Boise St. | MWC | 73.7% | 3.4% |
| Air Force | MWC | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Fresno St. | MWC | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| Wyoming | MWC | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Nevada | MWC | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Long Island | NEast | 50.4% | 50.4% |
| Mount St. Mary’s | NEast | 49.6% | 49.6% |
| Arizona | Pac12 | 100.0% | 33.2% |
| UCLA | Pac12 | 100.0% | 20.2% |
| California | Pac12 | 100.0% | 11.6% |
| Oregon | Pac12 | 99.9% | 10.4% |
| Colorado | Pac12 | 99.9% | 9.1% |
| Stanford | Pac12 | 8.1% | 8.1% |
| Washington | Pac12 | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| USC | Pac12 | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| Washington St. | Pac12 | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Arizona St. | Pac12 | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Utah | Pac12 | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Oregon St. | Pac12 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Bucknell | Patr | 78.4% | 78.4% |
| Lafayette | Patr | 21.6% | 21.6% |
| Florida | SEC | 100.0% | 85.5% |
| Missouri | SEC | 100.0% | 5.5% |
| Kentucky | SEC | 100.0% | 4.1% |
| Mississippi | SEC | 15.9% | 1.7% |
| Tennessee | SEC | 53.4% | 1.6% |
| Alabama | SEC | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| Georgia | SEC | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Arkansas | SEC | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Texas A&M | SEC | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Stephen F. Austin | Sland | 56.7% | 56.7% |
| Northwestern St. | Sland | 22.3% | 22.3% |
| Oral Roberts | Sland | 15.3% | 15.3% |
| SE Louisiana | Sland | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Sam Houston St. | Sland | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Nicholls St. | Sland | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| McNeese St. | Sland | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Central Arkansas | Sland | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Southern | SWAC | 68.8% | 68.8% |
| Alcorn St. | SWAC | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Jackson St. | SWAC | 8.2% | 8.2% |
| Alabama A&M | SWAC | 7.0% | 7.0% |
| Alabama St. | SWAC | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Prairie View A&M | SWAC | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| Denver | WAC | 41.2% | 41.2% |
| New Mexico St. | WAC | 22.0% | 22.0% |
| Louisiana Tech | WAC | 21.4% | 21.4% |
| Utah St. | WAC | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| TX Arlington | WAC | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| Idaho | WAC | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Seattle | WAC | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| UTSA | WAC | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| San Jose St. | WAC | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Updated: 3/11
