Archive for March, 2012

FINAL BRACKET

Midwest East
1 Kentucky 1 Syracuse
16 Western Kentucky/Lamar 16 Vermont
Louisville Pittsburgh
8 Gonzaga 8 Iowa St
9 Saint Louis 9 Xavier
4 Georgetown 4 Indiana
13 Ohio 13 Long Beach St
Nashville Louisville
5 Murray St 5 Vanderbilt
12 VCU 12 Washington/Marshall
3 Baylor 3 Wisconsin
14 Montana 14 New Mexico St
Albuquerque Portland
6 San Diego St 6 Cincinnati
11 South Florida 11 Colorado St
7 Notre Dame 7 Creighton
10 California 10 Kansas St
Columbus or Pittsburgh Greensboro
2 Ohio St/Mich St loser 2 Duke
15 Loyola (MD) 15 Long Island
West South
1 Missouri 1 North Carolina
16 Miss Valley St/UNC-Asheville 16 Detroit
Omaha Greensboro
8 St Marys 8 Southern Miss
9 Purdue 9 Alabama
4 Florida St 4 Louisville
13 St. Bonaventure 13 Davidson
Portland Nashville
5 Wichita St 5 Temple
12 Colorado 12 Harvard
3 Marquette 3 Michigan
14 Belmont 14 South Dakota St
Columbus Portland
6 Memphis 6 New Mexico
11 NC State 11 Virginia/Tennessee
7 UNLV 7 Florida
10 Connecticut 10 West Virginia
Columbus or Pittsburgh Omaha
2 Ohio St/Mich St winner 2 Kansas
15 Lehigh 15 Norfolk St
Last 4 Out In Today Out Today By Conference
Oregon Colorado Arizona Big East – 9
BYU Ohio Akron Big Ten – 6
Dayton St. Bonaventure Oregon SEC – 5
St Josephs Big 12 – 5
ACC – 5
Next 4 Out MWC – 4
Iona Atlantic 10 – 4
Mississippi St CUSA – 3
Texas Pac 12 – 3
Seton Hall WCC – 2
MVC – 2

Seed Line Moves: Purdue/California to move Purdue away from a #2 or #3 seed; Connecticut/Colorado St because there were too many Big East and ACC teams at the 11 line.

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Final Bracket if St. Bonaventure Wins

 

Midwest East South West
1 Kentucky Syracuse North Carolina Missouri
2 Ohio St/Mich St loser Duke Kansas Ohio St/Mich St winner
3 Baylor Wisconsin Michigan Marquette
4 Georgetown Indiana Louisville Florida St
5 Murray St Vanderbilt Temple Wichita St
6 San Diego St Cincinnati New Mexico Memphis
7 Notre Dame Creighton Florida UNLV
8 Gonzaga Iowa St Southern Miss St Marys
9 Saint Louis Xavier Alabama Purdue
10 California Kansas St West Virginia Connecticut
11 South Florida Colorado St Virginia/Tennessee NC State
12 VCU Washington/Marshall Harvard Colorado
13 Ohio Davidson Long Beach St St. Bonaventure
14 Montana New Mexico St South Dakota St Belmont
15 Loyola (MD) Long Island Norfolk St Lehigh
16 Western Kentucky/Lamar Vermont Detroit Miss Valley St/UNC-Asheville
Last 4 Out In Today Out Today By Conference
Oregon Colorado Arizona Big East – 9
BYU Ohio Akron Big Ten – 6
Dayton St. Bonaventure Oregon SEC – 5
St Josephs Big 12 – 5
ACC – 5
Next 4 Out MWC – 4
Iona Atlantic 10 – 4
Mississippi St CUSA – 3
Texas Pac 12 – 3
Seton Hall WCC – 2
MVC – 2


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Final Bracket if St. Bonaventure Loses

Midwest East South West
1 Kentucky Syracuse North Carolina Missouri
2 Ohio St/Mich St loser Duke Kansas Ohio St/Mich St winner
3 Baylor Wisconsin Michigan Marquette
4 Georgetown Indiana Louisville Florida St
5 Murray St Vanderbilt Temple Wichita St
6 San Diego St Cincinnati New Mexico Memphis
7 Notre Dame Creighton Florida UNLV
8 Gonzaga Iowa St Southern Miss St Marys
9 Saint Louis Xavier Alabama Purdue
10 California Kansas St West Virginia Connecticut
11 South Florida Colorado St NC State Virginia
12 VCU Washington/Marshall Harvard Oregon/Tennessee
13 Colorado Ohio Long Beach St Davidson
14 Montana New Mexico St Belmont South Dakota St
15 Loyola (MD) Long Island Norfolk St Lehigh
16 Western Kentucky/Lamar Vermont Detroit Miss Valley St/UNC-Asheville
Last 4 Out In Today Out Today By Conference
BYU Colorado Arizona Big East – 9
Dayton Ohio Akron Big Ten – 6
St Josephs SEC – 5
Iona Big 12 – 5
ACC – 5
Next 4 Out MWC – 4
Mississippi St Pac 12 – 4
Texas CUSA – 3
Seton Hall Atlantic 10 – 3
Miami (FL) WCC – 2
MVC – 2

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March 11th Morning Update

I’ve run through scenarios with both Ohio State and Michigan State winning today’s Big 10 championship game.  First of all, Missouri has surpassed Kansas in the S Curve rankings.  When Michigan State wins, they pass Missouri by the slightest of margins.  When Ohio State wins, they remain behind Missouri.  Because of this, I’m going to keep Missouri as a #1 seed.  The winner of the Big 10 championship will be the #2 in the West, the same region as Missouri.  The loser will be #2 in the Midwest, where Kentucky is the #1 seed.

For the scenario where St. Bonaventure wins the A-10 championship, even though Washington is the lowest at-large team in the S Curve rankings, I don’t see any way Oregon would be picked ahead of them.  I will take Oregon out of the field in the case of a St. Bonaventure win.

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March 10th 11:30 Update

The Big West and WAC finals haven’t been played yet, but looking at the S Curve rankings after the rest of today’s games, the rankings run against the prevailing consensus.  Marshall’s loss today did not knock them out of the field.  They, along with Tennessee, Oregon, and Washington consist the last 4 teams in.  Last year’s consensus had both Virginia Tech and Colorado in the field, so we’ll have to see what happens this year.  Marshall’s profile is surprisingly strong, the 3rd best non-conference SOS, with wins against Cincinnati (on the road) and Iona.  The only reason Oregon ranks so high is because Stanford beat California in the last game of the regular season.  That win put Stanford into the top 100 of the RPI rankings, which, given Oregon’s 2 wins against Stanford, gave them a 5-8 record against top 100 RPI teams.  Tennessee would be the worst ranked RPI team to ever earn an at-large berth, but a strong conference showing and 2 wins against Florida and wins against Vanderbilt and Connecticut give them a chance for a berth.  Washington, the regular-season champion of the Pac-12, does not have the best overall profile, but no champion of a power conference has been denied an at-large bid since the field expanded to 64 teams.

The Final Bracket will come out in the morning.  By this point the selection committee should have all the at-large teams decided, with contingency plans ready depending on the results of tomorrow’s games.  Here’s a look at those games:

Atlantic 10 Championship (Xavier vs. St. Bonaventure) – Xavier is currently in as a 9 seed, a win against St. Bonaventure should not change their seeding at all.  St. Bonaventure will not be an at-large team, so if they win, one of the final 4 teams in will not make it.  A win will also change the First 4 games since automatic qualifiers can’t play in these games, so any contingency plan based on the Bonnies winning will have to include a reshuffling of the First 4 games.

SEC Championship (Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt) – Kentucky will be the #1 overall seed win or lose.  Vanderbilt looks to be a #5 seed.  Given the fact that the committee did not reseed after last year’s SEC championship game (with Florida a #2 seed even after getting beaten badly by a Kentucky team that ended up seeded 4th), I don’t think the committee will come up with a contingency plan to reseed Vanderbilt in case of a victory.

ACC Championship (North Carolina vs. Florida State) – North Carolina will be a #1 seed regardless.  Florida State looks like a #4 seed.  I don’t believe that Florida State will be seeded higher if they win, for the same reasoning as with the SEC championship game.

Big 10 Championship (Michigan State vs. Ohio State) – Currently, both of these teams look like #2 seeds.  The question is, would the winner of this championship game be able to leapfrog either Missouri or Kansas for the last #1 seed?  In the morning, I will run through both scenarios to see if the winner of this game would be in the top 4 of the S Curve rankings.  If so, then I believe the committee may come up with a similar contingency plan to put the Big 10 champion as the last #1 seed.

Two final brackets will be posted tomorrow, one in case of a St. Bonaventure win and one in case of a loss.

 

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March 10th Bracket

Midwest East
1 Kentucky 1 Syracuse
16 Western Kentucky/Vermont 16 UNC-Asheville
Louisville Pittsburgh
8 Iowa St 8 Saint Louis
9 Gonzaga 9 Colorado St
4 Murray St 4 Florida St
13 Arizona 13 Akron
Nashville Albuquerque
5 Temple 5 Wichita St
12 Washington/Marshall 12 Oregon/Tennessee
3 Marquette 3 Baylor
14 New Mexico St 14 Montana
Portland Albuquerque
6 New Mexico 6 Memphis
11 South Florida 11 Connecticut
7 Creighton 7 Florida
10 Kansas St 10 NC State
Columbus Pittsburgh
2 Michigan St 2 Ohio St
15 Loyola (MD) 15 Long Island
West South
1 Kansas 1 North Carolina
16 Detroit 16 Miss Valley St/Lamar
Omaha Greensboro
8 St Marys 8 Southern Miss
9 Alabama 9 Purdue
4 Indiana 4 Georgetown
13 Long Beach St 13 Davidson
Columbus Nashville
5 Louisville 5 Vanderbilt
12 Harvard 12 VCU
3 Michigan 3 Wisconsin
14 South Dakota St 14 Belmont
Portland Louisville
6 San Diego St 6 Cincinnati
11 Xavier 11 Virginia
7 Notre Dame 7 UNLV
10 California 10 West Virginia
Greensboro Omaha
2 Duke 2 Missouri
15 Norfolk St 15 Lehigh
In The Mix In Today Out Today By Conference
BYU Marshall Dayton Big East – 9
Dayton Arizona BYU Big Ten – 6
St Josephs New Mexico St Nevada SEC – 5
Iona Big 12 – 5
Texas ACC – 5
Mississippi St MWC – 4
Colorado Pac 12 – 4
Massachusetts CUSA – 3
Miami (FL) Atlantic 10 – 3
Seton Hall WCC – 2
MVC – 2

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March 9th Bracket 7:00 Update

Marshall in, BYU out.

Marshall will most likely be out with a loss in tomorrow’s CUSA championship game, so I don’t see them ultimately getting an at-large bid.

There is zero chance that Drexel will be given an at-large bid on Sunday.  I will eat my computer if that happens.  Seriously, I will give up this blog and never try to predict the tournament selections ever again.  Selecting Drexel would go against everything the committee has talked about regarding schedule strength for at least the last 10 years, if not more.  I don’t know what’s going on at ESPN, Lunardi should know better.  Katz and Gotttlieb started campaigning for a 2-bid CAA about a month ago.  The league is way down this year.  Drexel’s overall and non-conference SOS are both around 220.  There is no way they get selected.

Look for UVA to have a seeding much lower than most predict.  Their non-conference SOS is terrible, they only have 6 healthy scholarship players, and they don’t have that many good wins.  I have them at 12 now, just outside the play-in games.

One question I’ve had regarding this year’s selections is how strong Conference USA is perceived by the committee.  Are they at the same level as the Missouri Valley or the Pac 12, or more like the Horizon League or the West Coast Conference?  Right now, I have them at the same level as the Pac 12.  I may change that before Sunday, which would drop Memphis and Southern Miss about one seed each.

 

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